Changes to Venezuela’s oil trade framework have redirected crude into different shipping channels without removing the need for vessel-level scrutiny, according to a Kpler report published by Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide. The report identifies the US as the largest known destination in 2026, followed by India and Spain, contrasting with a destination mix dominated by China and unidentified buyers in 2022.
Kpler’s flows data puts average Venezuelan crude exports at about 870,000 barrels per day in 2025, despite tighter policy restrictions. Shipments dropped to roughly 667,000 barrels per day in January 2026 before recovering to an average of about 1.14 million barrels per day between April and September. The report cautions that the January decline cannot be explained by a single factor and argues that sanctions reshape trading permissions and channels rather than immediately halting physical output.
The licensing framework is central to assessing individual cargo movements. The report describes a progression from the wind-down of energy authorisations in 2025 to restricted permissions and a controlled reopening in 2026. Those changes affected which parties could purchase, finance and transport Venezuelan barrels. For traders and freight counterparties, the relevant checks include the authorisation’s dates, permitted counterparties and destination, alongside whether a shipment comprises direct Venezuelan crude, a blend or a re-export.
The shipping network remains extensive. Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide cites Kpler data recording more than 560 Venezuelan crude trades involving 189 vessels in 2026. Unidentified destinations, movements through the Bahamas and Curaçao, and ship-to-ship transfers still warrant cargo-specific review. Tankers can also move between Venezuelan and other sanctions-sensitive trades, including Iranian crude, making previous employment relevant to a current voyage assessment.
However, the report stresses that unusual tracking behaviour is not proof of wrongdoing. Automatic Identification System gaps can reflect reception problems or technical faults, while ship-to-ship transfers are routine maritime operations in many locations. Kpler recommends combining cargo-origin checks, vessel movements, ownership and management information with satellite imagery and analyst review. Its central distinction is between a risk signal requiring further due diligence and a legal finding: absence from a sanctions list alone does not establish that a vessel or shipment presents low exposure.