Potential US sanctions relief for tankers could draw vessels away from Russian oil exports and into Middle Eastern trades, increasing Russian freight costs while easing shortages around the Strait of Hormuz. Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide, carrying a Platts report, said analysts expected a redistribution of existing capacity rather than a substantial addition to the available fleet.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said legitimate businesses would be permitted to buy sanctioned tankers for use in non-sanctioned trades to help lower shipping costs. Washington has not yet published a detailed proposal. BRS Shipbrokers estimated that, as of 19 October, 148 deepsea tankers were sanctioned solely by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), representing 2.5% of the global fleet by vessel count. Location data suggested only 14 had been inactive for more than three months.
Most potential candidates for mainstream employment were therefore already working, chiefly transporting Russian clean petroleum products, BRS said. Gibson Shipbrokers warned that Russian export freight rates could rise if those vessels moved into Middle Eastern business. The incentive to switch has strengthened: Platts assessments put average medium-range tanker time-charter-equivalent earnings on the Baltic–East Coast South America route $15,518.14 a day below its global clean medium-range tanker index over 1–16 October.
Gibson said 84% of OFAC-only tankers were located in the Middle East, Indian Ocean or East Asia, compared with just 16 vessels in European waters. It identified Hormuz shuttle services as their most likely employment, following attacks that have restricted tanker availability. Platts assessed freight for a 265,000-tonne crude cargo from the Persian Gulf to West Coast India at $95.83 a tonne on 19 October, against $19.15 on 27 February, before the conflict.
Relief could also encourage owners to sell into a strong secondhand market, provided buyers received sufficient protection against sanctions exposure linked to past trading, BRS said. Xclusiv Shipbrokers estimated that a 15-year-old VLCC was worth $160 million, up 177% over the past year. A similarly aged Suezmax had increased 127% to $92 million.
However, US delisting would not resolve UK or EU restrictions, nor establish a vessel’s suitability for mainstream charterers. Gibson said 70% of OFAC-listed tankers were at least 20 years old, with insurance and classification remaining major obstacles. INTERTANKO called for checks on condition, cover and ownership, while the International Chamber of Shipping said the proposal’s interaction with European sanctions remained essential to assessing its impact.